Predicting Next Fatal Airline Crash Due to Bad Weather Conditions - PyData SG

Published on: Tuesday, 10 May 2016

Speaker: Pawel Lachowicz (@quantatrisk)

Synopsis: Instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) is an aviation flight category that describes weather conditions that require pilots to fly primarily by reference to instruments, and therefore under instrument flight rules (IFR), rather than by outside visual references. We study the NTSB aviation accident database which contains information from 1962 and later about civil aviation accidents regarding all cases of fatal air crashes in the world due to bad weather conditions (IFR-based). Using classical and Bayesian statistics we build a model for effective calculation of the probability of the occurrence of next accident for the major airlines operating their flights with AIRBUS, BOEING, Embraer, and McDonnell Douglas types of aircrafts.

Speaker: Dr. Pawel Lachowicz (Sydney, Australia) received his PhD by applying novel techniques of signal processing in astrophysics from Polish Academy of Sciences in 2007. He worked at Temasek Laboratories and NUS in Singapore after that. He is a leading expert in data analysis covering financial markets, an educator, an author of books on finance, data processing, and applied programming. He also is a founder and writer at He specializes in Python for finance and big data.

Event Page:

Produced by Engineers.SG

Help us caption & translate this video!